In contrast, under the Doha Amendment, it was agreed that an emission reduction target of at least 18% would be met by developed countries in the second commitment period (2013–2020). Under the Kyoto Protocol, an emission reduction target of 5%, based on 1990 levels, was set to be achieved by developed countries in the first commitment period (2008–2012). Both these agreements assigned quantified emission reduction targets to developed countries, based on their 1990 emission levels. This principle was operationalised within the UNFCCC through two international climate agreements: the Kyoto Protocol (1997) and the Doha Amendment to the Kyoto Protocol (2012).
According to the World Economic Forum, inactions towards climate change would cost the world $1.7 trillion per year by 2050 (Januta 2021).īased on the principle of equity and common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities (CBDR-RC), the onus to reduce greenhouse gas emissions for a long time was placed on developed countries (also referred to as Annex I Parties). Furthermore, it has caused a further fissure between the developed and developing country groupings, contributing to mistrust on the next set of ambitions that were tabled in the negotiations.Įconomic: The cost of mitigation efforts is expected to increase significantly in the future compared to the pre-2020 period. The developing countries have concerns of bearing the burden of tackling the mitigation gaps from the pre-2020 period in the future. Political: The gaps in pre-2020 climate actions are also of grave concern from an equity perspective. This 1.5☌ marker is identified as a key tipping point1 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) beyond which environmental risks are likely to be extreme (IPCC 2018). There is a 40% chance that the annual average global temperature would exceed 1.5☌ above pre-industrial levels in the next five years (WMO 2021). The significance of pre-2020 climate actions by developed countries can be broadly encapsulated across three dimensions: environmental, political, and economic.Įnvironmental: The World Meteorological Organization highlighted that the global carbon dioxide concentration has already exceeded 410 parts per million (ppm), impacting our ecosystems, marine life, and increasing the global average temperature to record high levels (WMO 2021). The cost of unmet climate commitments by developed countries The issue was also discussed at the 25th Conference of Parties (COP 25) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Concerns continue to be expressed about the implementation of pre-2020 commitments by developing countries and were most recently emphasised in decision 1/CP.23. However, post-2020 ambitions announced by developed countries have been set without due consideration of their past performance. The fate of post-2020 negotiations for climate change crucially hinge upon the achievements, gaps, and issues recognised in the pre-2020 period. While these mid-century ambitions are essential for achieving the 1.5☌ global warming target set in the Paris Agreement, it is equally important to study the outcomes of the emission reduction pledges made by developed countries before the Paris Agreement, in the pre-2020 climate regime. In the last few years, the discussions on climate ambition have primarily focused on either nationally determined contribution (NDC) targets committed within the framework of the Paris Agreement, or respective countries’ net-zero commitments.
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